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How do you calibrate a model's probabilities (Platt scaling, isotonic, temperature)?

A model can rank perfectly and still lie about its probabilities; its 0.9 may be right 70% of the time. The signal is knowing the three fixes, which data size each needs, and how to measure the gap. Here is the answer.

Updated Aug 2026 · Grounded in real Applied AI Engineer interview loops and written to a senior-engineer editorial bar.

A model can rank perfectly and still lie about its probabilities; its 0.9 may be right 70% of the time. The signal is knowing the three fixes, which data size each needs, and how to measure the gap. Here is the answer.

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